NFL Playoffs Predictions: Divisional Round

Posted on 01/11/2012

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Wildcard Weekend – even though it came at the expense of my fandom – proved why the NFL is the most exciting professional sports league in existence. Tim Tebow and the Broncos are moving on after bouncing my boys in Black & Yellow. It’s going to take me a while to get over that one completely, but the NFL Playoffs are moving right along… So, I will too. Here are my predictions:

AFC

Saturday, January 14th
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots

Last week’s stunning upset aside, Denver enters Foxborough as 14 point underdogs. That’s a lot of points. Against the spread, I’d take the Broncos, but I certainly understand the Vegas insiders’ logic in setting this spread….

Exhibit A – The Broncos traveled to New England in Week 15 – riding high after pushing their season-high win streak to 6 games - and received nothing more than a 41-23 beat-down for their troubles.

Exhibit B – Tom Brady seems to take everything personally. Everything. Forget what he says to the media about what a great season Tebow’s had… In reality, Brady feels as though the ink used in printing the headlines Tebow has been getting should be used to print his own name instead. That’s not a knock on Brady, that’s how a lot of the great ones are. They’re competitive to the point of being excessive compulsive, and they hate to see anybody else mentioned before them. I expect Brady to punish Tim Tebow and the Broncos for stealing his headlines. I just don’t expect the Pats to cover that high of a spread… The Broncos will make it closer than they did in Week 15.

Winner: New England Patriots

 

Sunday, January 15th
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are favored by 9 points here. I can usually see a spread and immediately understand why it was set the way it was. This one confuses me a bit. I haven’t seen enough out of the Ravens lately to justify making them a 9 point favorite over a very good Houston defense. Maybe I’m wrong.

With these two teams and their stout run defenses, the players to watch right off the bat will be Arian Foster and Ray Rice. Can Foster take enough pressure off of rookie QB T.J. Yates? Can Ray Rice build on his 190+ yard performance against the Bengals in the final week of the season? Better yet, will the Ravens actually give Rice enough touches? These two backs will supply the juicy questions & over-analysis leading up to the game, but I think the game will hinge on two other players.

I think both defenses will do a good job of containing the running game. The game will  hinge on who has a better day in the face of a stalled running attack: Joe Flacco or T.J. Yates? Even though I think he regressed this season, the edge here has to go to Flacco. If worse comes to worse, Flacco can always dump the ball off to Rice and let him run loose in that way. T.J. Yates is a rookie, and the Ravens handled this Houston team easily in Week 6… and that was with Matt Schaub behind center. I don’t see Yates handling the Baltimore D better than Schaub did. The run comes to an end for Houston this weekend. Ravens win, but they don’t cover the spread.

Winner: Baltimore Ravens

 

NFC

Saturday, January 14th
 New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers

It is no surprise to me that the Saints are 4 point favorites here as they have been dominant for the better part of nine weeks now. I understand that the main ”yeah, buts” with this game will be: 1) The Saints aren’t as dominant outdoors, and 2) The San Fran defense will neutralize the Saints’ potent offense.

The first “yeah, but” is valid. The Saints averaged better than 41 points per game at home & under the dome this season while averaging under 24 points per during their final four games of the season played outdoors: Tennessee, Carolina, Jacksonville & Tampa Bay. My counter to that is this: If the Saints manage “only” 24 points against the Niners… They’ll still win. Personally, I don’t see Brees & Co. being held to fewer than 24 points.

The second “yeah, but” is an understandable instant reaction. The Niners’ D is stout and they will be on a mission to get to Brees early in an attempt to knock him out of his comfort zone. Here’s the rub, though: While the Niners’ run defense is stifling, their secondary is suspect as they gave up an average of better than 230 passing yards per game this season. If their secondary cannot maintain coverage long enough for Brees to come under pressure in the pocket, it will be a long day for San Fran. Here’s another kicker: Even if the secondary does maintain coverage downfield, Brees will dump the ball off to Sproles all day. He is - one more time, folks - the NFL MVP. I see the Saints winning & covering the spread.

Winner: New Orleans Saints

 

Sunday, January 15th
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers

Eli Manning and Co. arrive in Mr. Rodgers’ neighborhood as 9 point dogs. I understand the respect being shown to Rodgers and his 15-1 Packers squad. What I don’t understand here is the lack of respect for Eli and the Football Giants.

I have to look back at the Week 13 matchup between these two teams. The Pack emerged victorious in that one, 38-35. The thing to keep in mind here is that the Giants emerged from that contest as the only team in the NFL to legitimately hang with the Packers & have a chance to win right there at the end. Note that I said “legitimately”… I do not count the Packers’ aberration of a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Since that meeting, the Giants have gotten even stronger while the Packers have been exposed a bit. Much like last week, the key to the Giants taking this game will be the running game. Bradshaw and Jacobs will be called on to carry the ball a lot, and Eli will enjoy some soft coverage because of this. If Bradshaw and Jacobs are as effective as they were last week, and they effectively keep Rodgers & Co. on the sideline… The Packers can be in trouble.

Two more players to watch… Jason Pierre Paul and Justin Tuck. JPP in particular has been on a tear, as has the entire Giants D. I’m taking the Giants to win.

Winner: New York Giants

- JM

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